(CNN) -- The hurricane that is blowing through the East Coast has threatened to create the kind of unpredictable havoc in this election that presidential candidates always fear. With all the scripted television spots and carefully choreographed live appearances, Hurricane Sandy is generating fear that might push the campaign in directions that nobody has expected.
Mitt Romney and President
Barack Obama, and their circles of advisers, are likely glued to the
weather coverage, trying to figure out which way this hurricane will
make the election winds blow.
Social scientists have
studied the impact of extreme weather on elections in American history,
such as the ways in which Hurricane Andrew in Florida affected the 1992
contest between President George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton
Julian Zelizer
But the severity of the
unfolding hurricane, which will stretch across several states if the
worst predictions come true, might be more dramatic than anything we
have seen in a long time. The hurricane will pose a huge test for Obama
in the next few days, one that will make the debate in Denver look like
child's play.
As voters, particularly
those who are undecided, deliberate over whom they should support, they
will watch Obama as he navigates through the storm and the post-storm
clean-up. The crisis offers an opportunity for him to act presidential
in a way for which some voters are thirsting and to demonstrate the kind
of command that has often been lacking.
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He does not want to be an
echo to President George W. Bush's response to Hurricane Katrina, which
became a symbol of incompetence.
At the same time, there
is little that Mitt Romney can do, other than watch to see what people
think of Obama's response, because any statement from him could easily
become seen as political and offer little evidence of his own ability to
lead.
The storm has already
forced the campaigns to alter their short-term strategies. Already, both
campaigns have canceled events in key states such as Virginia that are
in the eye of the storm.
Romney will certainly
have to pull some of the television spots that he has been getting ready
to unleash in the final days of the campaign. Romney's strategy has
focused on saving for a last-minute advertising blitz for which he
planned to unload his campaign's coffers. Republicans didn't count on a
storm getting in the way.
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As Americans watch to
see their fellow countrymen and women struggling through a crisis, they
won't want to be bombarded with 30-second attack ads.
The Romney campaign will
have to quickly think of ways to redesign their ads in certain states
so that they fit the moment and provide voters with hope about new
leadership rather than take the risk of generating criticism of the GOP
being too petty and political, as occurred with Libya. Romney's team
will have to redirect some of their energy toward states not affected,
leaving the airwaves silent in the other states, waiting to see whether
Romney has the momentum that can carry him.
Crowley: Sandy introduces big unknown into campaign
There is also the effect
Sandy will have on the media, which already has focused primarily on
the weather and much less on the presidential campaign. This gives
candidates less space and time to influence events. Ordinarily, this
would be a valuable time, a period when campaigns have one last week to
shape voters' preferences, but this will become extraordinary difficult.
If electric power fails
and people become preoccupied with personal hardships, there will be
less time to focus on politics and it's possible that voter perceptions
might be frozen into place.
Finally there is the big question of voting behavior. How will severe weather affect voters in states such as Virginia?
Many observers expect
that this could depress voting in lower-income areas, which are often
badly affected and which have the least resources to recover, a
development which would naturally hurt Democrats. It also has caused
cancellations in early voting that might have benefited Obama's vote
total.
Another unpredictable
factor is the sheer anger and frustration that can come from a weather
crisis like this, which might very well intensify the broader sense of
malaise that exists in the electorate. Even to those who are not in the
path of the hurricane, this could feel like one more punch in the face
to a nation tired of waiting for real economic recovery.
We can hope the most
dire predictions about Hurricane Sandy will be wrong. But if they are
not, the presidential candidates will face a massive test. Both
candidates will need to scramble to make sure they handle it well.
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